The contractual side of Max Verstappen's future has been talked through for the better part of a year. According to a long-form discussion on the latest episode of The Race podcast, the side that should actually worry the FIA, Liberty Media and Red Bull is not the contract page. It is the press conference where he leaves.
The episode, fronted by Edd Straw with Jon Noble and special guest Matt Maggendee, runs through what Red Bull's post-restructure team needs to do to keep its four-time world champion and how F1 would respond if it failed. Maggendee, who has just published a book embedded inside Red Bull's 2025 season, drew a distinction between two kinds of exit.
The historically familiar exit is a world champion stepping back at the right age to spend time on family and other projects. F1 has weathered every previous version of that, from Jackie Stewart to Niki Lauda to Lewis Hamilton's eventual day. Maggendee argued that scenario, while emotional, is something F1 can absorb.
The scenario he says is different is the one where Verstappen does not retire but walks away citing the regulations. "Imagine if Formula 1's dealing with a scenario where Verstappen walks away and basically says, 'It's a bit rubbish,'" he said. "That is very different to 'I want to spend more time doing other things with family. I've done all this. I've done everything I need to do in Formula 1.'"
That distinction is what The Race's discussion returns to. The 2026 power-unit and aerodynamic reset has been the most politically loaded regulatory cycle since the V6 hybrid switch in 2014. If Verstappen, at the peak of his market value, framed the new era in public as a backward step, the technical debate inside the paddock would convert into a fan-facing referendum on the rules themselves. The implicit question is whether the FIA would, in that case, be willing to bend on rule details to keep him on the grid.
The second piece is the contingency planning. The Race panel argues that, if Verstappen continues to be frustrated by the regulations and the RB22 cannot consistently keep him in the championship picture, the most likely 2027 outcome may not be a contract switch at all. It may be a sabbatical. "I'd be very surprised if Max isn't racing for Red Bull next year, but is racing for another team in Formula 1," Straw said. "I wouldn't be so surprised if he's not racing for Red Bull, sat on the sidelines and then in a holding pattern waiting to see where the ground lies for 2028."
A Verstappen sabbatical would not be neutral for the field. It would force Red Bull's 2028 driver line-up to be settled earlier, hand Antonelli at Mercedes a clear runway to lock down generational status, and reset the engine partner conversation that Red Bull, Ford and the FIA have all been managing carefully.
The panel was clear that Verstappen has signalled loyalty to Red Bull personally rather than to any specific regulation set, and Laurent Mekies has continued to position the 28-year-old as the team's centre of gravity. But what The Race describes is not a contract analysis. It is a communications scenario. The risk is not the day he leaves. The risk is what he says about the sport on the way out.
